News - the dollar, oil and China's growth after the Olympics

OK - I tried to get the previous post and this information on the blog yesterday but was frustrated so let's see how things go today!

From a Bloomberg.com article, Koenig is in Argentina talking with the Central Bank there:
“Financial crises will occur despite our best efforts to prevent them,'' Hoenig said in prepared remarks at an event hosted by Argentina's central bank. “The `Too Big to Fail' issue will only grow in importance as the consolidation of the financial industry grows in both size and scope in future decades.''
His first comment was something many of you said to me about Bear Stearns during the summer:
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said for economies to work best, institutions must be allowed to 'fail.'
Also the article mentions that ...

The subprime-mortgage collapse has taken a toll on banks and other financial companies, which have reported $514 billion of writedowns since the start of 2007. The Fed rescued Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy in March, facilitating the firm's merger with JPMorgan Chase & Co. by lending against $29 billion of Bear securities.

From another article at Bloomberg.com about the recovery of the dollar:

The U.S. currency rose to $1.4557 per euro, the highest since Feb. 14, before trading at $1.4577 at 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4617 late yesterday. The dollar advanced to $1.7863 versus the pound, the strongest since April 2006. It was at 107.89 yen from 108.14 yesterday. The euro fell to 157.61 yen from 157.95 yen.

The Australian dollar declined to 84.69 U.S. cents, the lowest since September last year, before trading at 84.92 cents from 85.29 cents late yesterday in Asia.

Interesting that when I was in Canada, the two currencies were almost at par ($1 = 1 CD - Canadian dollar) but now the rate is more like 93 cents for a CD!!!  The pound sterling (UK currency) was over $2 and now see that it is almost $1.75!!!  For those wonks out there like me, a little statistics from the article:

Crude oil for October delivery last stood at $111.40 a barrel. It fell by $4.08 yesterday, the largest decline since Aug. 22. The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they moved in lockstep.

Crude fell in price because Gustav wasn't nearly the hurricane that Katrina and Irene were.  They wiped out pipelines and rigs throughout the Gulf of Mexico.  Thank goodness - eh?!!?

Finally, a little China news - where the rate is now down to 6.83 to the dollar (has been as low as 6.81 but the dollar strength keeps the Chinese from appreciating the currency even more).
China's leaders are planning tax cuts and a public-works spending spree to make sure their economy's growth isn't doused along with the Olympic flame.

Ten of 11 Summer Olympics host nations analyzed by Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen saw growth and investment slump in the year following the games; the only exception in his study, which stretches back to 1956, was the U.S. in 1996. Government officials in China, whose expansion was already slowing before the Beijing games ended last month, are determined to avoid what Jen calls the “Olympic Curse.''
A few other brief comments from the article (there is much more so go to the article if you are interested):

China's inflation rate “is coming down, so they have got potential to take their foot off the brake and ease up on monetary policy,'' AMP's Oliver says. The rate peaked at 8.7 percent in February and was 6.3 percent in July.

China's growth slowed to a 10.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a recent high of 12.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007. Some economists say China's expansion -- still the fastest among the world's 20 biggest economies -- remains strong enough to maintain its momentum without new spending or monetary easing. “But it's an uncertain world situation, so a month or two from now, those plans may look very smart,'' says David Dollar, the World Bank's director for China.
 

What did you think of this article?




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