Notice the word ADVANCE in my title did you?  Well THAT'S the biggest part of the first indication of how the economy performed over the 3rd quarter. 

Notice:  MANY OF THE NUMBERS ARE "estimates" WHICH MEANS GUESSES (I AM an economist so I can fess up! grin).

September's export and import numbers - guesses, inventories - guesses, ...

There are three more revisions to go.  In one month, we get the PRELIMINARY estimate, then another month later we get the FINAL report.  FINALLY, one year (almost) after the actual quarter ... we get the last report!

So take these numbers as guesses, not as this is how the economy performed, please.  That caveat in place, here goes:

From the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) website:
       
Recognize that the last quarter (2nd quarter of 2008) was just finally revised last month (Sept.) down from 3.3% to 2.8%.  THAT IS HUGE!  So, use the salt and not sparingly (take this with a HUGE grain of salt)...

In 2007, 4th Quarter the U.S. economy turned down.  Now we are down again (most economists I have read say expect the revisions to be downward rather than upward, but WE SHALL SEE, EH?)

SO,

As you can see (and read, the BEA press release is linked) - the Real GDP for the U.S. declined at 0.3%.  The largest decline since 2001 - the last recession.  Notice that in that recession in 2001, there were not 2 quarters of negative growth - ULTIMATELY (some define recessions as 2 negative quarters).  Initially, there were, but the 2rd Quarter of 2001 came out positive during the year later revision AND the 3rd Quarter of 2000, during Bill Clinton's Presidency, was ALSO revised a year later to be negative!!  So discussions about THAT recession happening on Bill's watch are valid.  Furthermore, discussions about the 4th Quarter 2007 and 1st Quarter of 2008 are valid too.  We shall see what the final numbers bring in.  Bottom line, the economy was anemic, has been anemic and is now MUCH WORSE!!  The 4th Quarter will surely come in worse unless something major comes along to put a huge number of us to work!!!

From Bloomberg.com:

“The crisis really kicked up in late September,'' Ethan Harris, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We're going to be looking at a very unfriendly GDP number in the fourth quarter, with a drop of 2 to 4 percent.''

A "money" personal consumption quote from the New York Times:
We could have told them THAT, eh?!?  Stay tuned!  I have 4 posts coming on topics from College Costs to the similarities to the 1929 Great Depression from N. Greg Mankiw.